Analysis of tXtFL Bowl 8.0

There are many ways to win a game. For the Broncos, those winning ways are above the dotted line, while for the Seahawks, their wins are below the line. Based on the density of dots below the dotted line, it's not surprising that the linear regression line (solid red) is tilted in favor of the Seahawks. What was surprising was that those dots far out toward the bottom right corner would represent the final outcome.

Our 10,000 simulations in tXtFL Bowl 8.0 didn't put out an exact 43-8 matchup, although we had a number of 43-7 and a 42-8 game. Just for kicks, we decided to post the full box score to speculate on one way that game might have turned out. There was in fact a safety, although in this fantasy game, the Broncos were the beneficiaries. Wilson did put up a strong passer rating (158, in fact, compared to 123 in real life), and Manning was the only one to throw an interception (only 1, compared to 3). Lynch was held to 60 yds rushing (compared to 39), and Thomas picked up 130 yds receiving (compared to 118), as opposed to the Seahawks' leading receiver, Baldwin, at 51 yds (compared to 66).

The benefit of hindsight does allow us to narrow down the dots to the final score. It did fall within the upper quartile for the Seahawks, narrowing avoiding outlier status. The problem for the Broncos was that to take home the trophy, they would have needed to achieve an outlier, and a far out one at that, for themselves.


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